Tourist Asks About Zika in Honduras

I am headed to Roatan for a week vacation, how concerned should I be about the Zika Virus?

The Zika virus business is a little hard to sort through the hype to get to any incontrovertible data. Here is a link to a relatively recent position statement of the US Center for Disease Control.

Zika or Insecticides?

Even in that report, many of the statements are frustratingly incomplete. Zika virus has been around at least since first reported in 1947, and only a recent media frenzy beginning with a report of an increased incidence of babies born with microcephalie in regions where there had been an increased number of reported Zika virus infections in some states in Brazil has led to the current Zika virus scare. But what is the real risk?,…. no one knows. It might be as high as 20 cases per 10,000 live births ( a 2 /10ths of 1 % risk) or as low as 1 or 2 cases per 10,000 live births, ( 2/100ths of 1 % risk…) , On the other hand, the  reported risk of microcephalie or other less common birth defects,  could be caused by the insecticides used to control the mosquito that is the vector of Zika virus. There seems to be just about as much real science ( i.e. not much) and just as much media hype ( a whole lot) in both reports.

 A low level disease

What is known about Zika is that Zika is a widespread low level disease. Probably pretty common in the tropics and subtropics around the world. This virus has been apparently actively transmitted in at least 43 countries. Honduras is one of those 43. I think that there was at least one case reported at the end of last year here in Honduras, ( but no known increase in birth defects associated).  Zika infections have been diagnosed in the USA and it is known that the mosquito that transmits Zika has been found in 30 states in the USA. It is presumed that if there is a link between Zika virus and birth defects, it would only be a very small risk and that only if a woman contracted an active case while she in her first trimester.  Presumably  once you have had Zika (which can be asymptomatic or can be like a mild case of the flu) after you have had it you are probably immune to future exposure, and it is also presumed that there would be no increased risk to future birth defects if you had it once. (It is presumed that it is only an increased risk (if any), while you have an active viremia.

 A Calculated Risk

So, are you at an increased risk of contracting Zika virus, while you are pregnant in your first trimester and then having as much as a 2/10ths of 1 % risk of the child being born with microcephalie? Maybe… It is not clear. But there is probably a greater risk of you getting severely injured in a car wreck this year… whether you get in an automobile is a calculated risk that one has to decide for themselves whether they are going to take it or not. But if you are not pregnant or going to get pregnant while in Honduras… then this media hype sure has scared a lot of people unnecessarily.

 

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